What were the reasons for the fall? Ambito spoke to various market analysts and asked them why the blue dollar is returning and what could happen in the short term if political instability continues.
“I think the relief from the rear wheels came from the fall in the fiscal dollar from the new rules” Cedar, Which, as usual, generates a short-term rebalancing of positions, and today it is already showing some signs of intraday reversal in the afternoon”, he said. Gustavo Ber, Holders of Study Plum.
It so happens that last week, looking at the parallel dollar growth, BCRA decides to limit the holding of Argentine Certificates of Deposit (Cedirs) – Foreign paper quoted in pesos – on the availability of US$100,000 for companies that enter the foreign exchange market. In addition, it decided to include devices that cannot be powered up for 90 days before or 90 days after official market access.
For Ber, the pause resulting from this rearrangement could be “barely short-lived if strong economic announcements from the financial, monetary and exchange fronts do not come soon.” In this sense, the Economist recognized that the government should propose a “confidence-building” comprehensive plan to aspire to correct the imbalance in a timely manner.
At the same time, he said the plan should have “strong political backing” to quell expectations, which from his point of view are “spoiled” and “reinforced by current inflation and financial stress.”
financial Analyst salvador di stefano He did not hesitate to confirm that this Monday’s session showed “a scarce market” which, in his opinion, is awaiting definitions from the economy minister, sylvina batakisoabout Meetings with IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva in Washington, and investors. This is the first visit by the head of the Palacio de Hacienda to the agency’s director.
“I think we will have to wait for those definitions or the outcome of the meetings that Batakis has had in the United States,” Di Stefano said, noting that there is “still a high degree of uncertainty” in the market.
However, in his opinion, the blue dollar is “too expensive” and “should fall into the $300 zone.” Why is it still high? To the analyst, the answer is “there is a shadow cone in the economic landscape that places us in a landscape of high uncertainty.” “I think everything will depend on the Batakis meeting and what it brings to Argentina. There will be a trend. In the meantime, we will continue to fluctuate without showing a strong stance.”
economist George Neuro Linked the development of the blue dollar with its similarity to the stock exchange, noting that this Monday “it was a quiet financial day because it fell.” “In general, it usually adjusts to MEP dollar values,” he explained. Well MEP Dollars A decline from $326 to $319 was recorded since last Thursday. While Blue fell from $337 to $322.
For Nero, there was “a very strong overreaction in the MEP market” last week, he explained, due to the fact that there was “a lot of panic” in the retail sector. As a result of the BCRA announcement, it jumped from $295 to $326 from Monday to Thursday, closing at $315 later in the week.
However, he added that blue “will continue to move in line with the dollar in the stock market.” There, he said, “a more difficult game” is played because, in his opinion, the stability of the dollar looks “precarious”. “We will have to see if it stabilizes at these prices in the coming days or weeks, or if the market bounces back to higher values near $350,” Nero concluded.
The fall in the parallel dollar was not the only sign of hope for the government. in daytime, BCRA managed to close for the second day in a row with a favorable balance in foreign exchange purchases, ending with a positive balance of US$55 millionDespite the fact that once again foreign exchange demand for energy exceeded $100 million.