Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Why YPF stock has remained in an all-time low zone for the last 18 months

The variation seems almost negligible compared to those registered during the same period by the shares of Vista Energy, Miguel Galuccio (+229%), or Petrobras (+187%).

With regard to the accelerated rise in the global crude oil price, it may be noted that the Argentine company did not take advantage of the open market opportunity after sustained energy shortages during the first half of 2022, because of the reference oil prices. The price reached Brent 41% and WTI, an increase of 42% along the same lines.

During these 18 months, the assets of the Argentine state company reached a maximum of US$5.72 on June 10, 2021. Conversely, it broke below the US$3.39 support level in the first days of November 2021 last year.

Since then and until April 18, 2022, the hydrocarbon firm went through an upward trend until it made a price correction, ending at its lowest point on July 21, when Its shares were priced at US$2.91 on Wall Street, the lowest point YPF has recorded in these two years.

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That level was pushed up only by the price recorded after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, when oil futures across the world came to register negative prices.

“In terms of asset profitability, and clearly the performance was not the best since Pablo Gonzalez took over. The latest results were great, with the company accumulating positive free cash flow for nine consecutive quarters, stabilizing production and It is expected to increase by 9% this year. This will allow EBITDA to increase to US$5bn this year, and all this in the context of high inflation in Argentina. The truth is that the YPF considers petrol prices politically viable. managed to rise above Rs.

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Explaining why its performance was not at par with that of other companies earning better returns, the operator recalled that “YPF is a joint venture and hence, it is not managed exclusively to maximize the profits of its shareholders. Is”; that the company suffered “a reputational cost from the time it did the aggressive debt swap I told you so far and it was unable to recover”; that “it has more debt on it and what could happen with possible changes in access to MULCs”; Finally, “there’s a huge judicial contingency in this.”

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