Monday, January 30, 2023

Will 2023 bring a new crisis in the energy sector in Colombia?

Today’s energy landscape is changing rapidly. For various analysts, the situation led to a “perfect storm” that caused a variety of crises.

Not only energy, the world has changed in politics, in the economy, even in ideology. Latin America’s energy supply is diverse, with oil being of most relevance, although it has natural gas, mineral coal, hydropower, and primary energy, including biogas, solar power, wind power, vegetable waste, and cane and firewood products. Are included.

In Colombia, the Energy Mining Planning Unit (UPME) reported that the energy sector that saw the most boom this year was liquid fuels. As consumption was 4,894 million gallons (mgal), representing an annual increase of 30% after a decline of -19.88% in 2020.

Similarly, the entity clarified that the annual growth in electricity demand was 5.24% due to the recovery of the non-regulated market, which saw an increase of 9.52%. Natural gas was the only energy source that did not increase its consumption level.

analysis

So, you have to look at more possibilities. Distribution, geothermal power and nuclear power are starting to become part of this landscape. Knowing this, the EAE Business School has published the “Energy Sector” report, the report makes it clear that the growth of consumption is unstoppable, maintaining this constant and sustained growth around the world.

Demand from emerging powers, and also from many countries attempting to emerge from underdevelopment, contribute to this growth in demand and the unstoppable consumption of energy in its many forms. Only the impact of the pandemic has affected this trajectory in a timely and inverse manner.

Professor and author of the study Eduardo Erastorza reflects on the pace and change of the current energy panorama around the world and identifies the factors that will determine its future development.

Thus, he “highlighted the North American country’s dominant position due to the strength of its currency and becoming a great supplier to the West, punished by cuts in Russian gas and increases in fuel prices.”

The study highlights that one of the key countries leading the world’s energy future will be China, which consumes almost double the energy consumption of 20th-century leader the United States.

The great production and manufacturing capacity of the Asian country determines that the import volume of crude oil has increased by 126.49% in the last 10 years, reaching 542.01 million tonnes in 2020.

Although individual energy demand by the rest of the world does not reach a tenth of China’s, the EAE study confirms the position of new emerging powers such as Brazil, Iran and Indonesia.

Read also: Threat to public health: presence of mercury and cadmium in soil causing mining poisoning Santander

more findings

According to the EAE Business School report, India will also be “strategic” in the global energy context. Besides having the advantage of English as a language and having a young labor force, India has energy resources and a preferential partner, Russia, which has given it the role of mediator in the recent Ukrainian crisis to release its gas.

Comparing the consumption of different types of fuel over the past 46 years, the research shows that, “although less oil and derivatives are consumed and more electricity, the so-called “clean energy” is still far from being implemented. ”

In this sense, “concepts such as sustainability, climate balance and regeneration are still far from reality in at least four fifths of the world.”

One of the findings of the EAE study focused on Asia as the true engine of growth of the world economy and, therefore, energy demand. This context sets that, in 2021, China was the largest consumer of primary energy with 157.65 exajoules; It was followed by the United States, with 92.97; India, with 35.43; Russia, with 31.3; Japan, with 17.74; And Canada, Germany, Brazil, Iran, France, Indonesia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom and Turkey together consumed less than 14 exajoules.

desired change is far away

The EAE Business School professor and author of the study explains that “although the 21st century was called clean and renewable energy, the reality is that change is still far from happening”.

The war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions, borders and high prices have forced many countries to look again at coal, as in 2021, the consumption of this energy resource was 161 exajoules, compared to 145 in 2020, according to the report stated in.

However, it is also verified that China never gave up coal and neither did India, which was called the metal furnace of the planet.

Likewise, regardless of the objectives of the “2030 Agenda”, the current “multi-crisis” (energy, political, economic, social) will prolong the role of this energy.

In fact, countries that had begun to take decisive steps towards clean energy, like Germany, had to reconsider going back to coal and nuclear power.

Moreover, if you compare the consumption of different types of fuel over the past 46 years, it becomes clear that “less oil and its derivatives are consumed, but more electricity”.

Therefore, the consolidation of “clean energy” is far away”. According to most pragmatic experts, at least two decades away. Why should it be otherwise, they wonder, if something happens in forty years and between major economic crises. Not too important has changed? Ideas such as sustainability, climate balance and regeneration are still far from reality in at least four-fifths of the world.

The 21st century (it was going to be the century of alternative energy) witnessed how oil was able to sustain itself with a consumption of between 3,500 and 4,500 million metric tons. Only the pandemic and the resulting distribution crisis have put the brakes on it, from which it has already recovered.

“The time has come to put another date on the 2030 agenda, for example, 2050; Because projections show us that the ratio between energy sources will hardly change in the next ten years, and that neither coal nor oil nor natural gas will have disappeared in thirty years. What’s more, they will continue to represent at least two-thirds, despite the growing weight of heavily subsidized renewable energy”, Erastorza concluded.

Nation World News Desk
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