The National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) conducted a study on the likelihood of new earthquakes being recorded on September 19, due to those that previously occurred in the country on the same day as part of the 1985 and 2017 tragedies.
The UNAM He pointed out that this research aims to determine if there is a greater probability of earthquakes on that particular day, as he explained that the Mexican territory lies between five tectonic plates: the Caribbean, the Pacific, the North American, the Rivera and the coconut.
It’s very unlikely that that will happen
The doctor Miguel Angel Jaimesfrom the Institute for UNAM Engineeringconducted a study in 2019 using probabilistic methods to answer this question.
Their research concluded that the likelihood of two major earthquakes occurring on the same day is quite low.
“The occurrence of two significant earthquakes on a given date affecting the same location may seem very unlikely. However, a recent earthquake on September 19, 2017 occurred on the exact same day of the year as another well-known major event in 1985.” “Some people now believe that earthquakes in Mexico on September 19 are more likely,” says Dr. Jaimes in his study.
A numerical calculation of the probability of three earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater occurring on the specified dates of 1985, 2017 and 2022 yields an extremely low value.
“These probabilities may also be lower than, for example, the probability of a comet or asteroid 2 km in diameter colliding with Earth; that a person has his heart on the right side; the probability of winning the lottery, 6/49 ; or being attacked by a shark.”