With Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the United States proved its status as a great power

With Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the United States proved its status as a great power

A few days ago, Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. This angered China, which started military exercises in the South China Sea. Candidate of Historical Sciences, Taras Shevchenko Associate Professor at Kyiv National University, told Armia to inform the importance of Pelosi’s visit and how it would affect American allies in the region and Ukraine.

, What do you think is the significance of Ms Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in the context of US-China relations?

– In my opinion, this is, first and foremost, a continuation of an effective strategy by the United States of America to balance and manage the crisis surrounding Taiwan. Pelosi’s visit seems provocative at first glance.

Nevertheless, I call this “provocative visit” important because of the fact that the United States has demonstrated the importance and attention of relations with its formal and informal allies. Despite scathing threats from China that Pelosi’s plane would be shot down if it sided with US Air Force planes.

That is, it is a demonstration of attention to one’s obligations – Pelosi said this at the press conference as well. The politician is also the bearer of the United States’ global obligations.

The second point is to openly check Beijing for action. It concerns the extent to which the hidden consensus around Taiwan works between China and the US. How does this triangle work?

Well, the third point that emerges from this visit pertains to Ukraine in particular. For the Biden administration, after all, principles and values ​​are sometimes more important than geopolitics.

With Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the United States proved its status as a great power
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Deputy Secretary of State Anthony Blinken

That is, support for Taiwan as a promoter of Western values ​​in East Asia is a signal to Russia that support for Ukraine continues in spite of threats and threats.

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Of course, there is no direct connection here, but here too, one can read that Washington is already moving forward because of Russia’s threat to use nuclear weapons and China’s threat to shoot down the plane.

, How did Russia’s massive invasion of Ukraine affect China’s strengthening of Taiwan?

– This must be concerning, because at first glance, the attention of the United States has largely been diverted from Taiwan. It is at first glance, and from a geopolitics point of view, a conflict with the two nuclear powers is at least inconvenient for Washington.

With this journey and this game, the United States proved its position as a major global power. How did China want to take advantage of this window of opportunity? China indirectly played with the Russians, as the confrontation between Russia and the West benefited Beijing.

China is the main agent of influence on Russia. It’s a very convenient bargaining chip with the West on sanctions imposed by Trump and Taiwan. By the way, the restrictions are quite sensitive.

Since March, China has carried out abusive and aggressive behavior in the South China Sea and the Yellow Sea. Given that the focus of the United States has shifted to Ukraine.

Still, if we take a fairly broad configuration, Biden managed to mobilize Europe as well as East Asia. Remember the Asian visits of Biden, then Secretary of State Blinken and now Pelosi. Where did Pelosi fly to – South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia.

With Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the United States proved its status as a great power
Nancy Pelosi in South Korea

The war is now in the works, a consolidation of American allies around the idea of ​​resisting the rebellion. Europe is mostly centered around the Ukrainian issue. The same goes for East Asia – by the way, we are not forgetting AUKUS (Australia, Great Britain, USA. – Ed.), quad (India, Australia, Japan, America. – Ed.,

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The United States recently conducted military exercises with the Philippines, Japan exercises with the United States three times a year, and South Korea twice. And maneuvers are also political signals.

Therefore, we see a bet on consolidation with allies of the Biden administration. Such a strategy places a great deal of responsibility on the allies for political and economic efficiency. This is what Blinken said during his first visit to Kyiv in May 2021.

, Is it possible to unite all US allies in the Indo-Pacific region into the Asian analogue of NATO?

– Historically, no military-political configuration has worked in East Asia – Sito and Santo during the Cold War are a vivid example of this. The region is much more complex than in Europe.

The threat factor is not decisive for the countries of East and Southeast Asia. We see that ASEAN is by far the most influential organization. There is a complex decision-making system and a formula for finding compromises that are unusual for us. Nevertheless, since 1967, ASEAN has existed, is evolving, and even has its own security documents.

With Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the United States proved its status as a great power
A map of Oxford Analytica of the East Asian region with states’ military capability

Therefore, it is unlikely that the United States will be able to add any other country to the existing forms of coalition. This should not be done, because there is a Japanese-American treaty – an analogue of NATO in the Far East. There are relations with South Korea, “special relations” with Taiwan.

The Philippines has its challenges, but it now has a strong desire to be friends with the United States because it was already closer to China at one time. Vietnam wants to demonstrate its autonomy and at the same time fears Beijing, but also remembers the traumatic experience of the Vietnam War.

Because of this, the existing alliances are sufficient for the main task, namely military-strategic control of China. The latter includes the following aspects:

  • Protection against the annexation of Taiwan by Beijing. Controlling an island is a leap in the Pacific Ocean.
  • The United States and allies in East Asia have a consensus. This is freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. By the way, China has repeatedly indicated to Washington that the US recognizes the “one China principle” and that Taiwan is part of China. Then the Taiwan Strait is automatically the PRC’s exclusive maritime zone.
  • The development of missile and nuclear technologies in China, which may already reach US shores.
With Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the United States proved its status as a great power
Quad leaders meeting in May

American diplomacy is focused on these issues. And then comes Russia, chips, economy, human rights etc.

, We understand that Ukraine has the support of the countries of the Euro-Atlantic region. More difficult, of course, with Latin America, Africa and the Indo-Pacific. Given the current situation around Taiwan, how should Ukraine engage in security cooperation with countries in the Indo-Pacific region?

– Firstly, this region is far from us, secondly, we do not have a stable system of trade and technical connections and the corresponding level of investments. On the contrary, by the way, for Israel, which has an interesting differentiated system of technological connections.

The first track is that we need to use the opportunity of Taiwan’s solidarity with Ukraine. In particular, have already seen the experience of Lithuania’s cooperation. Taiwanese are now very active in Eastern Europe, for example in Poland and the Czech Republic. We need to model relations with Taiwan directly, not through China.

The second point is due to the lack of interest of the countries of the region in Russia and the slow, strategically inevitable exhaustion of the Kremlin in the war against Ukraine. Interest in the form of cards in the game with China and the United States in Russia. India, who says, here is Russia, we will buy it there, and so is China and so on.

With Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the United States proved its status as a great power
Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky

The position of Russia will gradually decrease, so relations with the countries of the region will not be conditioned by the Russian factor. In the 1990s, Russia blocked several contracts with Ukraine.

Asian economies are also productive and accordingly export oriented. They need markets, including Ukrainian.

Everything here will depend on how we come out after the war. How interesting we will be to the world as an economic and technological partner. We see that this is also a security factor on which the further globalization of Ukraine depends.

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