There is a chance that we will find out late Tuesday night whether Governor Gavin Newsom will remain in his seat for at least another year, or whether someone will be elected in his place. Then again, it can take a day – or even a few – to know for sure.
However, due to the new voting pattern in California, experts say that the announcement of the preliminary results just minutes after the Sept. 14 polls closed will probably be good for Newsom. After that, as the results are updated to include more walk-up ballots, the competition can be tougher.
California voters have become accustomed to learning about election winners and losers on election night or sometimes a few days later. Many recent elections have been close, and voters have increasingly voted for them through mail – two reasons that could delay certain results.
But the deadline for final results may not apply to withdrawal. 1 election The September ballot has only two questions compared to a few dozen in the November election. Withdrawal withdrawals are also not expected to reach the 80% of registered voters who participated in November, so officials will count a few million fewer ballots. Similarly, the ballot counting deadline is even stricter, with election officials now having to complete the table of all eligible mail-in ballots (posted on or before September 14) within seven days of election day, which is much shorter than the 17-day allowed time in November.
And if the recent votes are correct, the withdrawal may not be particularly close.
A final poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Government Studies on Friday showed Newsom with a 21.5-point lead, a search that shows a big win for the opposition opposition but is consistent with several other votes released last month.
“The question of when we will know” will depend on the initial results and how they will be handled, ”said Paul Mitchell, with Sacramento-based firm Political Data Inc.
If 70% of the ballots are counted on election night and one side continues to gain 15 points, Mitchell said it could be mathematically impossible for the other side. But if the initial count is strict, or the number of ballots counted is low, the final result will not be known on election night.
As for what the initial outcome will be, expect them to be favorable to the governor. A new pattern of voting in California in 2020 যেখানে where Democrats send ballots by mail, driven by coronavirus concerns, and former President Donald Trump and other GOP leaders questioning mail-in voting রিপ is what Republicans privately call for. Being done. And that pattern can skew the preliminary results published on and after election night.
The results of the first batch will come out shortly after voting ends at 8 p.m., based entirely on the initial mail-in ballot, which California election officials have been counting for most of last month. Those early votes will almost certainly unequally represent the Democrats, who are overwhelmingly supportive of keeping the news around.
But each of California’s 58 counties has its own pattern for publishing ballot counts, which were later updated with the Secretary of State. In most counties, the results of the second round will be announced after 9 p.m., that number will include some ballots voted on election day, and then the race for withdrawal will begin to intensify.
Ali Naveed, founder of California Talks, a Los Angeles-based research firm, said, “Using the analogy of football, there is a huge lead in the‘ Opposition to Withdrawal ’campaign.
“The ‘Recall Recall’ campaign is trying to make a dramatic return to the fourth quarter.”
We have seen how the type of vote changes.
In 2018, in the 3rd House District of Orange County, Democrat Gil Cisnaros overtook Republican Young Kim by 9,000 votes on election night, making Kim the first to declare herself the first Korean-American woman in Congress. But at the time, preliminary results were still in favor of Republicans. And over the next few days, as more ballots were personally tabulated and included in the total, Cisnaros moved forward. More than a week later, Cisnaros was declared the winner, eventually defeating Kim by 3.2 points. Republicans cried unnecessarily, claiming without evidence that the flip was the result of deception.
But in 2020 the opposite happened. With epidemics and political rhetoric swirling around the type of vote in their heads, Cisnaros had an early nine-point lead based on the mail-in ballot count announced on election night. But after counting the individual ballots, Kim ended up winning 1.2 points. There were no allegations of fraud after this result.
The swing between preliminary and final results is not expected to be dramatic in the election, as Democrats make up a much larger portion of California’s electorate.