Macro data has always been a guide for the market, but this year each release of major benchmarks has been taken as the ultimate test. Although growth figures have been significant, in recent months it has turned out US CPI The one that has sold, or bought, the most among investors.
Inflation figures for the month of September in the United States will be published today and experts expect it to remain at 8.1% compared to the same month last year. this figure would be Corresponding to August and lowest after April, However, any positive or negative surprises in this area will be a judge for the stock markets, as it could guarantee an expected increase of 75 more basis points by the Fed at the next meeting or even, Call for speculation that rate hikes will be higher, something that will not be liked in the markets. From PIMCO they point out that “core inflation data has been rising above central bank objectives and, although it is likely that headline inflation will ease into our cyclical horizon, it now appears that this will take longer”.
What was known yesterday was the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for the month of September. Despite a slight drop compared to August – when the figure was 8.7% – to 8.5%, the data is once again a tenth higher than analysts’ estimates. This meant a new bucket of cold water for European markets, which continue to decline.
Thus, the forecasts for the CPI data are not good. IBEX, along with the British stock market, became the only one of the main stock exchanges on both sides of the Atlantic. Will encounter this indicator in the annual minimum, Yesterday, the Spanish Selective marked a new floor at 7,261 points, having touched 7,300 on September 29 and even experienced intraday with the lowest it experienced in March located at 7,287 points. “Here is the great containment dam that should be watched, because if that ground breaks too much, we fear we could drop towards the October 2020 lows that IBEX was trading before its appearance on the scene . Pfizer Vaccine”, explains EcoTrader advisor Joan Cabrero. “A bounce formed last week from that environment of great support that was crucial to remove the risk of seeing a downward spiral, so far we have only seen one leg in that bounce and I would like to rule out the possibility of seeing it. Reluctant to move into second leg within it until IBEX loses support at 7,287/7,000 points [y el Ibex con dividendos los 22.500 puntos]”, experts say.
According to Cabrero, those 7,000 points “have the base of the channel that has been limiting the decline in recent months and its range would fit more with the same support of 22,500 points of IBEX Total Return.” “To be able to trust in a rebound that is sustainable over time and the risk of seeing losses at that level is removed, it is essential that an eventual rebound be able to beat the downward guideline that unites the May highs.” and August and that Currently runs for 8,240 points“, concludes the expert.
Ibex’s response to IPC
With IBEX at its lowest level in the year, how would you react to the new US inflation data?
On most occasions, the retaining wall that the Spanish team had built prevented the rigors of the blows. The turning point came with the figures for May. It fell nearly 4% on the day of publication alone and entered a downward spiral that caused a loss of more than 9% of its value in four sessions. August’s figure was the hardest ever, After falling 1.6% on the same day, it couldn’t bounce back and went down for the year, leaving about 11% of its value on the way.